Earth Futures series: Identifying high-impact pathways for climate-smart livelihoods in the food and circularity sectors

• May 20, 2026
• 2 min

India’s food systems and circularity sectors form the backbone of livelihoods for millions. Yet, it remains deeply exposed to growing climate pressures. 86% of India’s 126 million farm households operate on less than 2 hectares, while average farm incomes are just INR 8,337 (~USD 88) per month against cultivation costs of INR 3,740 (~USD 40). The structural precarity is stark. Across smallholder agriculture, dairy, fisheries, forestry, and waste management, production systems face increasing stress from erratic weather, resource degradation, and structural inefficiencies. Without adaptive action, climate change could reduce India’s agricultural productivity by up to 25% by 2050.  

These challenges are most acute for the bottom 30% of producers who are thinly capitalized, lack resilient infrastructure, and have limited risk-mitigation capabilities. What appears to be isolated production losses is a systemic failure in which climate risks cascade across value chains and erode incomes and resilience at scale. Existing interventions are fragmented and reactive, and have failed to address the deeply embedded bottlenecks that drive vulnerability. 

A systems-level approach is needed to address this problem and identify high-impact, scalable interventions across interconnected sectors. In this context, The/Nudge Institute, through its ^delta Prize, engaged MSC as the technical partner to identify breakthrough opportunities for climate-resilient livelihoods across five sectors: Agriculture, livestock, fisheries, forestry, and waste management. 

MSC covered eight sub-sectors under agriculture, livestock, fisheries, forestry, and waste management and mapped climate stress points, structural bottlenecks, and existing interventions. This was followed by 40 expert consultations with industry practitioners, researchers, and ecosystem actors and focused listening sessions to present and stress-test problem statements, gather expert feedback, and define measurable thresholds to anchor intervention design and investment decisions. 

The project produced a roadmap of critical problem areas that affect climate-resilient livelihoods across food systems and circularity sectors. It also developed nine defined, measurable problem statements where targeted interventions could accelerate innovation and scale. These spanned regenerative farming, soil diagnostics, weed management, animal health monitoring, poultry market access, pond risk management, low-value waste processing, decentralized wastewater reuse, and productive use of crop residue. Each problem statement was anchored in clear performance thresholds to guide prize design and investment decisions. 

The Nudge Institute commissioned the project as part of the Earth Futures Series, with support from the ^delta prize.