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A generation at risk: How Southeast Asia’s climate inaction is endangering adolescent health and resilience

In Metro Manila, 15-year-old Angela fainted on her way to school. Like a thousand others across the nation, her school was closed due to a severe heatwave. Angela is just one among countless people across Southeast Asia who bear the brunt of changing climate. Each year, over 460 million of them face at least one environmental hazard, while 210 million face three or more. This reveals a structural gap in how the health and well-being of adolescents are often overlooked. Without urgent, evidence-based investment, climate change will reverse valuable gains in adolescent health, education, and gender equity.

Background

The East Asia and the Pacific region is home to more than 1 billion children and adolescents. Southeast Asia falls under one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned that the region will face extreme exposure to heatwaves, floods, vector-borne diseases, and sea-level rise over the next two decades.

April 2024 was when the region experienced one of its most extreme heatwaves. In Bangladesh, heatwaves forced all schools to close, which impacted 33 million children. Temperatures soared above 50°C in parts of the Philippines, Cambodia, and Thailand. Governments across these regions continue to struggle as they respond to the heatwave crisis. Such closures deprive students of essential services, such as school meals, menstrual hygiene products, and psychosocial support.

Compounding health risks for adolescents

Adolescents’ developing thermoregulatory systems make them uniquely vulnerable to the physiological impacts of extreme heat. Research has also found that prolonged exposure to temperatures above 35°C can lead to dehydration, heat exhaustion, and cardiovascular strain – outcomes that are severe in undernourished or anemic adolescents.

Besides rising temperatures and urban congestion, air pollution is another increasing public health risk. Adolescents are exposed to a high proportion of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5), which increases the rates of asthma, infections, and reduced lung capacity, especially in cities, such as Jakarta, Bangkok, and Manila.

Moreover, vector-borne diseases, such as dengue, malaria, and measles, also affect adolescents disproportionately. Rising temperatures expand mosquito breeding zones, which spread these diseases to new areas. A 2024 analysis by UNICEF on the “effects of climate change on child health and well-being” found that climate-sensitive disease outbreaks disrupted the education of more than 40,000,000 children annually.

Another barrier that adolescents struggle with is poor mental health, which remains overlooked and has a profound impact on adolescents. Climate-induced displacement, loss, and disruption are linked to rising rates of anxiety, depression, and Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) among adolescents. A strong correlation has been confirmed between extreme weather exposure and adolescent psychological distress, particularly among girls and marginalized youth (PMC Pub Med Central).

Schools as frontlines of climate disruption

Climate crises directly impact educational systems. Schools in Thailand, the Philippines, and Cambodia closed due to unsafe conditions during the April 2024 heatwave. Students in regions like Sylhet miss up to eight weeks of education each year. The Guardian reported that classroom temperatures exceeded 40°C in Bangkok, which violates national safety thresholds for indoor environments.

School closures disrupted more than learning as adolescents were deprived of meals, vaccines, menstrual health support, and psychosocial care. A study finds that school closures affect adolescent girls disproportionately due to the limited menstrual hygiene infrastructure and gendered responsibilities during such crises. Despite their physical and social vulnerability to climate threats, adolescents are notably missing from national adaptation and health plans.

When schools are closed, adolescents, particularly girls, lose a lifeline. They suffer further disadvantages due to inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure. Plan International’s report cited that floods or droughts increase the chances that menstruating girls will temporarily or permanently drop out of school. These setbacks increase the risk of early marriage, gender-based violence, and intergenerational poverty.

Structural gaps in policy and systems

Despite the growing burden of climate impacts on adolescents, policy frameworks remain adult-centric. Per the UNICEF report, only one-third of Southeast Asian countries explicitly address adolescent health or education in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) or national adaptation plans.

Even when governments introduce programs for maternal and child health, they often underfund services for adolescent mental health, reproductive care, and disease prevention. This shows that health systems are misaligned and inaccessible, especially in rural and informal urban areas.

Education ministries also rarely integrate climate resilience into infrastructure or curricula. A UNESCO SEAMEO (Southeast Asian Ministers of Education Organization) 2023 audit found that fewer than 20% of public schools in ASEAN countries are built to withstand flooding, and fewer than 5% have heat-resilient classroom architecture.

Investing in resilience is good economics

Healthy, educated adolescents become productive adults who sustain growth, innovation, and stability. Every dollar invested in their climate resilience yields long-term social and financial dividends. Private capital, public programs, and youth innovation must converge around this goal. Companies that embed adolescent-health resilience into their ESG strategies, by supporting climate-proof infrastructure, mental-health tech, and inclusive education, will not only build reputational capital but also strengthen the markets they depend on.

The current climate crisis presents an opportunity for stakeholders to center adolescents in climate policies. National climate with age plans must include adolescent-specific health and education indicators, with age-specific monitoring. The following interventions show how adolescent needs can be operationalized across health, education, and climate systems.

Climate-resilient-adolescent-health-systems-

  1. Climate-proof schools and health centers: Governments must prioritize resilient infrastructure, such as cooling systems, flood barriers, and solar-powered water systems, in urban and rural schools.
  2. Scale adolescent mental health and psychosocial support: Stakeholders should invest in training frontline workers to detect and address climate-induced stress in adolescents, especially in post-disaster zones.
  3. Provide gender-responsive WASH services: Every school and clinic must include private, functional menstrual hygiene management facilities, particularly in climate-affected districts.
  4. Support youth-led advocacy and innovation: Programs that fund adolescent participation in climate governance and solution-building should receive adequate support to yield higher accountability and innovation outcomes.

The business cost of inaction

Beyond being a humanitarian issue, the health toll of climate change is an economic one. When schools close, when adolescents fall ill, when communities relocate, productivity, innovation, and future labor supply all decline. The ILO estimates that heat stress could erase up to 5 percent of working hours annually in ASEAN economies by 2030.

Yet most corporate sustainability agendas still treat adolescent health as someone else’s responsibility. That must change. The private sector has both the means and the incentive to safeguard this generation – not through short-term philanthropy, but through long-term investment in resilience, innovation, and workforce well-being.

Private innovation filling public gaps

Public health systems in Southeast Asia remain under-resourced; few allocate more than 3 percent of GDP to healthcare, and even less to adolescent mental health or preventive care. Private innovation can help bridge, some, if not all, of these gaps.

Across Asia, a surge of digital and mental health enterprises is showing what scalable, affordable solutions look like. In India, more than 400 private mental-health startups now offer AI-enabled chatbots, teletherapy, and wearable devices that extend care to millions. Similar models can be adapted for adolescents in climate-vulnerable communities, especially for providing low-bandwidth, multilingual access to psychosocial support after disasters or heat events.

In the Philippines and Indonesia, health-tech startups are piloting mobile screening tools for stress and dehydration among students, linking them to digital counselors or clinics. Corporate Employee Assistance Programs are also expanding to cover adolescents in their employees’ families, embedding continuity of care across the household. These approaches reinforce how private enterprises can extend public health delivery without duplicating it — reaching more people, faster, and often at lower cost.

What next?

More than demographic statistics, the 243 million adolescents in Southeast Asia are a resilient generation at risk. Although climate change has made their vulnerabilities visible, it has also underscored their potential as change agents. The current policy vacuum is a critical failing, but it can be reversed with immediate, inclusive, and strategic investment.

Adolescents must be repositioned at the center of Southeast Asia’s climate resilience agenda. The private sector holds a decisive role in this equation – by financing innovation, scaling digital health, and building climate-resilient infrastructure that gives every adolescent a fair chance at the future. In a region where the next generation will inherit both the economic promise and the climate burden, investing in their health is the smartest business decision of all.

Beyond the classroom: Building real-time financial capability for last-mile users​

MSC’s Digital Financial Capability (DFC) platform provides personalized, multilingual financial education tailored to users’ knowledge levels. After an initial assessment, users access content through audio lessons, flashcards, and interactive activities. Topics include opening bank accounts, withdrawals, and safe use of financial services. An integrated AI-powered assistant answers questions in local languages. Users can monitor progress. Multiple users can access lessons on a single phone. The platform makes financial education accessible, relevant, and practical, with support for sustained engagement.

Are we addressing the real constraints to health-worker performance?

A woman in labor develops a complication that requires urgent referral. The Auxiliary Nurse Midwife (ANM) attending to her recognizes the danger signs, follows the protocol, and initiates the referral. But the ambulance is unavailable. The nearest referral facility does not have the capability to manage the complication and the blood that may be required is not available. The woman does not receive the care she needs in time. 

Where, in this case, did the failure occur? Was it a gap in the ANM’s knowledge or skills? Did she fail to recognize the complication or act on it? Or did the breakdown occur elsewhere in the pathway that should have enabled her actions to translate into care? 

The answer matters because how we diagnose the problem determines how we try to fix it. When poor service delivery is attributed to health-worker performance, the distinction between a competency gap and a system constraint is often overlooked. As a result, training can become the response to problems it was never designed to solve. When a health program underperforms, a common response across ministries, donors, and implementing organizations is to retrain the health workforce. This instinct is not unreasonable. Human resources for health (HRH) are the point of contact between health systems and the people they serve, and their knowledge and skill genuinely matter. But the problem arises when we default to retraining without first understanding what is causing poor performance.   

This is not to argue that training doesn’t work. Where a cadre genuinely lacks the knowledge or skill a role requires, training closes that gap well. Evidence from Peru shows that training alone is not a sufficient intervention because it leaves untouched the deeper problems like attrition and weak supervision that shape how a worker behaves on the job. The question then is whether poor performance reflects a genuine competency gap or whether constraints elsewhere in the system are preventing the worker from performing effectively. 

Figure 1: World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) six building blocks of a health system

 

One lens to address this question comes from the WHO’s health systems framework (Figure 1). The framework’s emphasis on interconnectedness highlights that health-worker performance depends partly on how well the surrounding health system functions. This implies that a health worker’s performance is not something they generate on their own. It depends on whether their role is clearly defined, whether they have access to the medicines, equipment and information they need and whether the facilities and referral systems around them are capable to respond.  

A “system” failure hence is not a single black box. It is usually a chain of decisions, a district store that under-ordered, and a supervisor who never visited. Yet, it is often the health worker who absorbs the blame because they remain the most visible actor in that chain. A dysfunctional referral pathway, a non-existent supervision structure, or a deployment decision made several levels above them sit further back in the system and can therefore go unexamined and unaddressed. This also helps explain why retraining so often becomes the default response even when the actual constraint sits elsewhere in the system. 

The pathway from training to better service delivery, therefore, has several links: training must build competency, competency must translate into performance, and that performance must connect with a functioning service-delivery pathway. A failure at any one of these points can produce the same visible result: poor service delivery. 

Illustrative examples of where and how the system might break down 

  1. Unclear roles: Before competency can be verified, there has to be clarity on what a health worker is expected to do. Without this clarity, we risk adding tasks and training to cadres without considering whether those tasks belong within their role.  Getting the right person, with the right competencies, to perform the right role, therefore starts with clearly defining what each cadre is expected to deliver.
  2. Inadequate supervision: Even when roles are clearly defined, health workers may not receive the supervision needed to translate those expectations into practice. Studies consistently show that supportive supervision measurably increases direct patient care. In practice, however, supervision can remain focused on compliance rather than on assessing competencies, identifying performance gaps, and supporting workers to improve.  
  3. Poor deployment: A well-trained and supervised worker cannot compensate for being posted in the wrong place. For instance, in Indonesia, only 4 of 38 provinces have one doctor per 1,000 people. The challenge, therefore, is not only the workforce size but how effectively it is distributed in relation to population need.  
  4. Facility-level constraints: Even when the right worker is in the right place, performance can still be constrained by the absence of basic inputs. A trained health worker cannot deliver services effectively without the medicines and equipment required for their role. This holds particular relevance for Community health workers in low- and middle-income countries, who face stock-outs of essential medicines nearly one-third of the time.  

Together, these examples show how a performance gap that appears at the level of the health worker may originate elsewhere in the system. They are not exhaustive. Financing, workload and staffing, referral systems, technology, governance, and other system-level factors can similarly shape whether health workers are able to perform effectively. The specific constraint will vary across contexts, which is precisely why identifying where the performance gap lies must come before deciding how to address it.  

What actually moves the needle 

Rather than defaulting to training, the first step is to understand what is driving the performance gap and where in the pathway does it occur. The framework below provides a simple way to diagnose whether the constraint lies in the worker’s role, competency, enabling environment, ability to sustain performance, or the wider health system. 

A framework to identify where the performance gap lies in the health system:

 

Identifying where the performance gap lies is only the first step. The next is determining who is best placed to investigate its cause and act on it. This should not automatically be the actor closest to where the failure becomes visible. Instead, ownership of the diagnosis should follow three simple questions: 

For example, if a health worker is unable to demonstrate a competency required for their role, a supervisor or clinical mentor may be best placed to diagnose the gap. If trained workers across a facility are unable to deliver services because essential commodities are repeatedly unavailable, the diagnosis needs to involve facility and district management. If patients are consistently lost between referral points, the district or program team may need to bring together the actors responsible for referring, transporting and receiving patients. Where the same deployment, financing, or governance constraint recurs across multiple districts, diagnosis may need to move further upstream to the state or national level. 

The principle is simple: the actor at whom a problem becomes visible should not automatically become the actor held responsible for diagnosing or fixing it. The person who experiences the constraint, the person best placed to diagnose it, and the person with the authority to address it may all be different actors. 

Conclusion 

The aim is not to train less, but to diagnose better. Not every performance gap is a training gap, and the actor closest to the problem may not always be the best placed to address it. When service delivery falls short, the first task is to understand where the pathway is breaking down, what is causing the gap, and who is best placed to act on it. 

The diagnosis should then guide the programmatic response. A competency gap may require training, an unclear role may require role redesign or clearer responsibilities, an enabling gap may call for better supervision, deployment, commodities or tools, and constraints in the wider system may require changes to referral pathways, financing, governance or coordination. The value of the framework is therefore not simply in identifying the problem, but in helping programmes match the right intervention and the right actors to the gap they are trying to solve.  

Insurance will not close the climate adaptation gap: Here is where it can help

This policy note examines the role of insurance in financing climate adaptation for underserved households, MSMEs, smallholder farmers, and agricultural value-chain actors.

Drawing on discussions from a climate insurance roundtable, co-led by MicroSave Consulting (MSC) and The Pearl (University of Reading), hosted by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) at London Climate Action Week 2026, the note argues that adaptation finance faces two distinct constraints, an unresolved funding gap and an incomplete financeability architecture, and that insurance can play a bounded but valuable role within the second. It proposes a six-question investability test for separating adaptation investments suited to credit-plus-insurance from those that require grants, guarantees, or adaptive social protection instead, and sets out seven design shifts, ordered by readiness, for building a more effective insurance architecture. The note draws on evidence from Pakistan, Uganda, Malawi, Lebanon, and elsewhere, and situates insurance within a wider layered resilience system rather than treating it as a standalone solution to the adaptation finance gap.

We gratefully acknowledge the organizations represented at the roundtable for sharing their perspectives and insights: the United Nations Capital Development Fund (UNCDF), the Consultative Group to Assist the Poor (CGAP), the World Food Programme (WFP), Agri3 Fund, the Initiative for Smallholder Finance Advisors (ISF Advisors), The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), NIESR, Global Parametrics, the Center for Disaster Protection, Practical Action, the University of Washington, and The Nature Conservancy. Their participation informed the perspectives and ideas presented in this note.

This was first published in Zenodo on 21st September 2026.

The economic case for investing in India’s healthy aging

Introduction

India is aging at a pace that will test the capacity of its health and economic systems. In 2022, 149 million Indians were aged 60 and above, about 10.5% of the population; and by 2050, there will be 347 million, or 20.8%.

The elderly population is currently growing at a decadal rate of 41%, faster than any other age group. Older adults will likely outnumber children aged 0–15 by 2046. After decades of planning for a young and growing population, India must now prepare for rapid aging. The country must also ensure that people live these years in good health, with financial security, independence, and dignity.

Population aging in India currently appears as a future welfare burden, but it is an urgent economic policy challenge. The case for investing in healthy aging rests upon proactive systems. These systems protect households, sustain labor markets, improve productivity, and support continued contribution in later life. They also challenge the assumption that aging inevitably leads to dependency.

These economic gains will largely come through two complementary pathways: the reduction of losses from poor health and disability in later life, and the creation of new value through support that helps older adults remain healthy, active, and independent for longer.

Reducing the economic losses of unhealthy aging

The first gain from investing in healthy aging comes from lowering the costs of poor health in later life. Despite advances in financial protection and health assurance, out-of-pocket expenditure continues to account for 43.4% of total health expenditure in India. This burden falls heavily on the elderly. An older adult spends roughly 17.4% of total household consumption on healthcare, a share that rises to nearly a quarter (24.8%) among the poorest of older adults.

For many families, a serious illness in old age can deplete savings, force the sale of productive assets, or push entire households into debt. Families divert savings that could support education or enterprise investment to medical expenses instead. The economic consequences extend well beyond the health sector. They affect household consumption, generational asset creation, and long-term financial security.

Much of this burden is preventable. Investments in preventive care, early diagnosis, and effective management of chronic conditions reduce the likelihood of expensive hospitalizations and complications, generating savings for both households and the health system.

Healthy aging is about more than just extending lifespan. It is about increasing health-span, the years people live free from significant illness, disability, or functional decline. Ultimately, it is also about enhancing joy-span, which includes purpose, social connection, autonomy, and emotional well-being.

Healthier, more independent years mean lower treatment and long-term care costs for both families and the health system.

Creating economic value through healthy aging

The economic case extends beyond healthcare cost reductions. As the population ages, demand for informal, unpaid caregiving rises. Women bear most of this burden and often leave paid work to provide care. Globally, one year away from paid work leaves women with 42% less in retirement savings, rising to 56% after five years of interrupted employment.

Healthy aging also expands the productive contribution of older adults. Traditional assumptions often portray older people as dependents. Yet, nearly 40% of Indians aged 60 years and above remain economically active, particularly through agriculture, self-employment, household enterprises, and the informal economy. Older adults also take on childcare and household management, work that is essential to families but has historically gone unpaid. These forms of work generate substantial economic value, despite their limited recognition in national accounts.

Preserving functional capacity and independence helps older adults and their families to remain active participants in the economy.

Why the opportunity is greatest now

India is younger than many countries that already face the fiscal pressures of population aging. In 2021, the country had roughly 16 older adults for every 100 working-age people. This demographic window gives India fiscal and institutional space to invest in healthy aging before these pressures intensify. Early investments in the aging-friendly interventions can compound over time.

Vietnam offers a close parallel. Its intergenerational self-help clubs, launched in 2006, began as older people’s associations before they expanded to include the wider community. These voluntary village-level groups have 50–70 members and combine health monitoring, livelihoods, and social participation. These clubs focus on older people, women, and those facing economic hardship. This award-winning model costs little and transfers easily because it uses existing community structures.

Fortunately, India does not need to build an entirely new system. The Ayushman Arogya Mandir network, community health workers, and digital health platforms like eSanjeevani already support preventive, continuous, and community-based care.

Older adults also benefit from dedicated government programs such as Atal Vayo Abhyuday Yojana, Elderline, Senior Able Citizens for Re-Employment in Dignity (SACRED), and Seniorcare Ageing Growth Engine (SAGE). In addition, the expanded Ayushman Bharat coverage now supports citizens aged 70 and above.

The foundations already exist. The challenge is to integrate existing health, aging, and digital systems into a coherent strategy that prioritizes prevention, functional ability, and healthy aging across the life course.

The choice: Spend now or pay more later

India will incur the costs of population aging regardless of its policy choices. The real question is whether it pays those costs proactively through prevention, early intervention, and community-based care, or reactively through hospitalization, disability, and crisis-driven spending.

Healthy aging is often framed as a social responsibility, and it most definitely is. But it is also an economic strategy. For a country entering one of its largest demographic transitions, adding years to life is no longer enough. The greater challenge and opportunity lie in adding joy, dignity, social participation, and care to those years. Whether longer lives weigh on the economy or add to it will depend on the choices India makes now.